• insurance stock prediction

    Aflac Dividend Stock forecast

    Aflac Dividend Stock forecast
    Aflac Dividend Stock forecast : Aflac Incorporated provides supplemental health and life insurance in Japan (80% of earnings) and the U.S. Products are marketed at work sites and help fill gaps in primary coverage.

    Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

    1. Avg. High Yield Price
    2. 20-Year DCF Price
    3. Avg. P/E Price
    4. Graham Number
    AFL is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $61.44. AFL earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
    Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
    1. Free Cash Flow Payout
    2. Debt To Total Capital
    3. Key Metrics
    4. Dividend Growth Rate
    5. Years of Div. Growth
    6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
    AFL earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. AFL earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 30 consecutive years.
    Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
    1. NPV MMA Diff.
    2. Years to > MMA
    AFL earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $992. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as AFL has. The stock’s current yield of 2.6% exceeds the 2.54% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
    Memberships and Peers: AFL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company’s peer group includes: American Independence Corp. (AMIC) with a 0.0% yield, Unum Group (UNM) with a 2.3% yield and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) with a 0.8% yield.
    Conclusion: AFL earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks AFL as a 5-Star Very Strong stock.
    Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $51.47 before AFL’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 30 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.6%.
    Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 7.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. AFL has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.
    Operating in the two largest insurance markets in the world (U.S. and Japan), AFL has built a tremendous low-cost distribution system. Focusing on supplemental insurance products, AFL consistently generate excess returns for shareholders. Consistent earnings has allowed the company to increase its dividend and repurchase shares.
    Despite a strong business model, the AFL’s balance sheet remains stressed due to questions over some of its investments, specifically European bank hybrid bonds and European sovereign debt. The company has taken steps to de-risk its investment portfolio. This move will likely slow earnings growth over the next few years, but should lead to higher long-term value.
    AFL is currently trading at a discount versus its historical valuation. The company is trading below my calculated fair value price of $61.44. However, a recent runup in its share price has lowered the stocks yield, so for now I will wait on a more attractive entry point before adding to my position.
    Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information. Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in AFL (1.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).source : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154141-aflac-incorporated-dividend-stock-analysis?source=google_news
  • Insurance Tips

    The negative side of bank mortgage insurance

    The negative side of bank mortgage insurance : Mortgage life insurance isn’t very popular and it has more than a few detractors. For one thing, the premium payments typically remain constant even though your death benefit drops. What seemed like a bargain when you first took the insurance, and your mortgage, becomes less so as the loan balance and the insurance death benefit drop.


    Another concern is that the insurance benefit will be payable to your lender upon your death, not to your dependents. That limits the desirability of having this type of insurance.

    While it may be good to have your mortgage paid off upon your death, your dependents may have other, more pressing concerns. They will not be able to address those concerns with a mortgage life insurance policy. read How does mortgage life insurance work

    Is it worth having?

    For most people mortgage life insurance shouldn’t be necessary. You can instead take the largest term life insurance policy you can afford and use part of the proceeds to payoff the mortgage on your home at your death, if that’s what you and your survivors agree upon. However your dependents will not be locked into paying off the mortgage, should they decide against doing so.

    A straight term life insurance policy give them the flexibility to allocate the money wherever it’s most needed. Maybe that’s the mortgage, and maybe it’s not, but they’ll have that option.

    If you don’t have a whole lot of confidence that your survivors will allocate the life insurance proceeds wisely, then mortgage life insurance can be a consideration. Since the proceeds will be allocated directly to payoff the mortgage event of your death, you will be able to know that it will happen as you wish.

    Your survivors might still blow through other insurance proceeds, but at least you can know that the mortgage on a house will be paid for.

  • Aflac insurance,  insurance stock prediction

    Aflac Inc AFL stock prediction 2013

    best insurance stock – Aflac Inc AFL stock prediction 2013, Aflac Inc AFL insurance stock performance outlook 2013 : Aflac Inc. (AFL) stock traded down 2.53% on Thursday, hitting $52.70. AFLAC has a 52-week low of $38.13 and a 52-week high of $54.93. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $52.81. The company has a market cap of $24.711 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.90.

    Aflac Inc. (AFL)  What most consumers don’t realize is that 80% of Aflac’s business comes from Japan, where it is the number one life insurance company. In the U.S., Aflac is the number one provider of voluntary worksite insurance, and its policies pay cash benefits directly to the insured. One of my favorite things about Aflac as an investment is that the company has one of the best records of dividend increases I have ever come across, with 29 consecutive years of increases.

    AFLAC last released its earnings data on Tuesday, October 23rd. The company reported $1.77 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.66 by $0.11. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 14.4% on a year-over-year basis. AFLAC has set its Q4 guidance at $1.46-1.51 EPS. Analysts expect that AFLAC will post $6.61 EPS for the current fiscal year.

    Currently yielding $1.40 annually, or 2.68%, it is a fairly safe assumption that the increases will continue going forward. Also worth noting is that Aflac trades at only 8.2 times 2012 earnings, which are expected to grow considerably going forward. Consensus estimates call for earnings of $6.92 and $7.38 in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Conservatively assuming the P/E ratio gravitates toward the historic average of around 9 times earnings, this gives us one and two year price targets of $62.28 and $66.42.

    AFLAC Stock rating by analyst
    AFLAC (NYSE: AFL) was downgraded by equities researchers at JPMorgan Chase from an “overweight” rating to a “neutral” rating in a report issued on Thursday. They currently have a $54.00 target price on the stock, down from their previous target price of $55.00. The analysts noted that the move was a valuation call.

    A number of other analysts have also recently weighed in on AFL. Analysts at Barclays Capital reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Thursday. They now have a $65.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $58.00. Separately, analysts at FBR Capital reiterated a “market perform” rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a $52.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Zacks reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Monday, December 24th. They now have a $57.00 price target on the stock.

    Aflac (NYSE:AFL) has been reiterated by TheStreet Ratings as a buy with a ratings score of B+ . The company’s strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity, attractive valuation levels and good cash flow from operations. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company shows low profit margins.

        Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 21.6%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 14.3%. Growth in the company’s revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.

        AFL’s debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.28 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels.

        The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. In comparison to the other companies in the Insurance industry and the overall market, AFLAC INC’s return on equity significantly exceeds that of the industry average and is above that of the S&P 500.
       
    Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, provides supplemental health and life insurance. Aflac has a market cap of $25.36 billion and is part of the financial sector and insurance industry. The company has a P/E ratio of 8.9, below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7. Shares are up 25% year to date as of the close of trading on Tuesday.

    Figure Aflac stock chart 1 year

    Aflac Inc AFL stock prediction 2013

     AFLAC Inc.earning growth forecast
    AFLAC Inc. (AFL): Provides supplemental health and life insurance. Market cap at $24.86B, most recent closing price at $53.01. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 6.07, and a MRQ book value per share value at 34.1, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*6.07*34.1) = $68.24. Based on the stock’s price at $53.23, this implies a potential upside of 28.21% from current levels. PEG at 0.88.

    AFLAC Inc.earning growth forecast 2013-2014

    Over the next five years, the analysts that follow this company are expecting it to grow earnings at an average annual rate of 10.65%.This year, analysts are forecasting earnings increase of 4.36% over last year. Analysts expect earnings growth next year of 4.42% over this year’s forecasted earnings.

    Aflac Inc  Business Summary   
    Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, provides supplemental health and life insurance. The company offers various voluntary supplemental insurance products, including cancer plans, general medical indemnity plans, medical/sickness riders, care plans, living benefit life plans, ordinary life insurance plans, and annuities in Japan. It also provides loss-of-income products, such as life and short-term disability plans; and products designed to protect individuals from depletion of assets, which comprise hospital indemnity, fixed-benefit dental, vision care, accident, cancer, critical illness/critical care, and hospital intensive care plans in the United States. The company sells its products through sales associates and brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.


    Aflac life insurance market outlook 2013, Aflac life insurance plans 2013, Aflac shares prices forecast 2013, Aflac  earning estimates 2013, Aflac earning growth 2013, Aflac stock rating 2013, Aflac shares prices target 2013

  • aig insurance

    Weekly Industrial Alliance (IAG) stock rating prices target

    Weekly Industrial Alliance (IAG) stock rating prices target : A number of firms have modified their ratings and price targets on shares of Industrial Alliance (TSE: IAG) recently:

    •     Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at TD Securities from $34.00 to $38.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
          Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at CIBC from $35.00 to $41.00.
          Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at National Bank Financial from $30.00 to $37.00.
          Industrial Alliance Insurance had its price target raised by analysts at RBC Capital from $29.00 to $35.00. They now have a “sector perform” rating on the stock.
    •     Industrial Alliance Insurance had its “sector underperform” rating reaffirmed by analysts at Scotiabank.
          Industrial Alliance Insurance was upgraded by analysts at National Bank Financial from an “underperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating.
    •     Industrial Alliance Insurance was downgraded by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating. They now have a $40.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $42.00.
    •     Industrial Alliance Insurance had its “sector perform” rating reaffirmed by analysts at CIBC. They now have a $11.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $19.00.
    Shares of Industrial Alliance opened at 36.40 on Tuesday. Industrial Alliance has a one year low of $20.55 and a one year high of $39.20. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $35.05. The company has a market cap of $3.309 billion and a P/E ratio of 10.60.

    Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. (Industrial Alliance) is a life and health insurance company.

  • aig insurance,  stock rating

    AIG insurance stock rating overweight by Evercore Partners

    AIG insurance stock rating
    Best Insurance stock – AIG insurance stock rating overweight by Evercore Partners : American International Group (NYSE: AIG)‘s stock had its “overweight” rating restated by analysts at Evercore Partners in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday. They currently have a $40.00 price target on the stock.

    Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of American International Group in a research note to investors on Wednesday, January 16th. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at FBR Capital initiated coverage on shares of American International Group in a research note to investors on Thursday, January 10th. They set an “outperform” rating and a $44.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Wells Fargo downgraded shares of American International Group from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a research note to investors on Thursday, January 10th.
    Twelve research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, one has issued an overweight rating, and nine have issued a hold rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “overweight” and an average target price of $40.43.
    American International Group traded up 1.11% on Tuesday, hitting $35.48. American International Group has a 1-year low of $24.66 and a 1-year high of $37.67. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $34.89. The company has a market cap of $52.379 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.42.
    American International Group last issued its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, November 1st. The company reported $1.00 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.88 by $0.12. Analysts expect that American International Group will post $3.77 EPS for the current fiscal year.
    American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is an international insurance company, serving customers in more than 130 countries.
  • aig insurance

    Insurance stock focus today AIG, HIG shares

    best insurance stocks today – Insurance stock focus today AIG, HIG shares : Financial Sector of Property & Casualty Insurance Industry stocks are in focus, as its stocks were gaining high volume during the previous trade. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) remained a top volume gainer in its industry and was showing a negative trend during the previous trading session. Also, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) was in focus of investors and it was showing bearish movement during the previous trade.


    American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported that, for the fourth quarter of 2012, a net loss of $4.0 billion, or $2.68 per diluted share, in comparison to the prior year same quarter net income of $21.5 billion, or $11.31 per diluted share. Net income was $3.4 billion, or $2.04 per diluted share, for the fiscal year 2012 versus the fiscal year 2011 of $20.6 billion, or $11.01 per diluted share.

    Financial Sector stock, American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported the plunge of -3.62% and closed at $37.06 with the total traded volume of 26.91 million shares. The stock’s opening price was $38.89. The company has a total of 1.48 billion outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $54.71 billion.

    52-week price range of the stock remained $27.18 – $39.90, while during last trade its minimum price was $36.86 and it gained its highest price of $38.93.

    Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) declared for the fourth quarter 2012, a net loss of $46 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, in comparison to the prior year same duration net income of $118 million, or $0.23 per diluted share.

    Property & Casualty Insurance company showing negative momentum during previous trade, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) reported the decline of -4.32% after opening at the price of $24.29, while its closing price for the day was $23.05.

    HIG’s total trading volume for the day was 8.92 million shares, versus its average volume of 5.65 million shares. Company’s current market capitalization stands at $10.20 billion along with 442.50 million shares.

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  • aig insurance

    AIG potential for join a lawsuit

    AIG potential for a lawsuit : American International Group Inc, the insurer rescued by the U.S. government in 2008, drew angry condemnation from lawmakers on Tuesday after saying it may join a lawsuit that alleges the bailout terms were unfair.

    A leading congressional Democrat called criticism of the deal’s terms “utterly ridiculous,” and former New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer – who probed AIG when he was in office – called the prospect of a suit “insulting to the public.” The White House declined to comment on the potential for a lawsuit but defended the $182 billion bailout.

    Meanwhile, newly elected Senator Elizabeth Warren, feared by Wall Street as a potential thorn in its side on the Senate Banking Committee, called the suit talk “outrageous” and said the company should not “bite the hand that fed them for helping them out in a crisis.”
    The move would be something of a shock, given that AIG just launched a high-profile television ad campaign called “Thank you, America,” in which it offers the public its gratitude for the bailout. On Tuesday, the company promoted the ads on Twitter, even as it came under fire over the lawsuit.
    Securities experts said AIG’s board needs to consider the matter as part of its fiduciary duty, but also said it was unlikely they will actually join.
    AIG said its board would meet Wednesday to discuss joining a lawsuit filed against the government by the insurer’s former chief executive, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg.
    Greenberg, whose Starr International owned 12 percent of AIG before its near-collapse, has accused the New York Fed of using the rescue to bail out Wall Street banks at the expense of shareholders, and of being a “loan shark” by charging exorbitant interest of 14.5 percent on the initial loan.
    “If AIG enters this suit it would be the equivalent of a patient suing their doctor for saving their life,” said Mark Williams, a former Federal Reserve bank examiner who teaches in the finance department at Boston University.
    BUSINESS JUDGMENT
    A federal judge in Manhattan already dismissed one of Greenberg’s suits in November; it is being appealed.
    In his ruling dated November 19, Judge Paul Engelmayer said AIG had notified the court it would hold a board meeting January 9 to discuss joining one of the suits, with a decision expected by the end of the month.
    A separate suit under different legal theories is still pending in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims in Washington.
    In a mid-December hearing in the Washington case, a lawyer for AIG told the court that all sides had already made three written submissions to the board and that the board would spend half the day on January 9 discussing the suit.
    One expert in securities law said he doubted AIG would ultimately decide to join the case.
    “All the fiduciary standards that guide board behavior would warn against joining the suit,” said James Cox, a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University School of Law in Durham, North Carolina. “I see nothing to be gained by AIG piling on, and I see a lot of downside risk.”
    An AIG spokesman declined to comment beyond confirming that the board would meet as planned. The deliberations were first reported by the New York Times.

    ‘CHOICE WAS BANKRUPTCY’
    The New York Fed said Tuesday there was no merit to any allegations that the bank harmed AIG.
    “AIG’s board of directors had an alternative choice to borrowing from the Federal Reserve and that choice was bankruptcy. Bankruptcy would have left all AIG shareholders with worthless stock,” a representative of the bank said Tuesday.
    Elijah Cummings, the ranking Democrat on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, acknowledged that AIG’s board has a fiduciary duty to consider the lawsuit. But he also said the company had a choice in 2008 and picked what it considered the better option.
    “The idea that AIG might sue the government is an unbelievable insult to our nation’s taxpayers, who cleaned up the mess this firm created,” he said in a statement.
    Cummings’ former colleague, the recently-retired Barney Frank, said he was “stunned” by the news and added that AIG was a fully willing participant in the rescue.
    “There was not the hint of a suggestion of any coercion. They did this very voluntarily, very gratefully. And if the company were now to go around and join this lawsuit, that would be outrageous,” Frank said in an interview.
    The U.S. Treasury declined to comment. It completed its final sale of AIG stock in mid-December, concluding the bailout with what Treasury called a positive return of $22.7 billion.
    AIG shares fell 0.8 percent to close at $35.65. After losing half its value in 2011, the stock rose more than 52 percent in 2012, tripling the gains of the broader S&P insurance index.

    GREENBERG ROLLS ON
    If AIG decides to join Greenberg’s suit, it would be another legal victory for the man who once ran the world’s largest insurance company but was ultimately forced to leave under a cloud of scandal.
    On Monday, a federal judge ruled that New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman does not have standing to object to a $115 million settlement between AIG shareholders and the former chief executive. Schneiderman wanted the deal rejected.
    The judge’s ruling apparently clears the way for approval of the deal, whose broad releases would preclude New York from pursuing its high-profile 2005 fraud case against Greenberg, according to court papers.
    The state case, brought by Spitzer, accuses Greenberg and former Chief Financial Officer Howard Smith of using sham transactions to mask the company’s financial position.
    The claims, which Greenberg and Smith have fought through three New York attorneys general, await an appeal at the state’s highest court.